Tuesday, September 3, 2019

Best Options Trading Brokers and Platforms of September 2019

The best options brokers offer low commissions, solid trading tools, an abundance of high-quality research and the customer service necessary to support everyone from beginner investors to advanced traders. At least, that’s our take on what makes for the best brokers. Ask a dozen people what they prioritize and you may get a dozen different answers.

While most of the brokers on our list of best brokers for stock trading would be a good pick for options as well, this list highlights brokers that excel in areas that matter most to options traders. Many of the below brokers also appear on our list of best online trading platforms for day trading.

Unsure what you’re looking for? See our post on how to choose an options broker and our options 101 guide for more on what can make or break an options trading experience.

12 Best Roth IRA Accounts of September 2019

How (and why) to open a Roth IRA

Opening a Roth IRA is easy: You’ll need to provide some personal information, including your birthdate and Social Security number, but that’s about it.

With a Roth, you can withdraw your contributions at any time without paying taxes or penalties. In that way, Roths can act as a backup emergency savings account. Plus, once you’re retired, there are no required minimum distributions, as there are with traditional IRAs. One thing to know: There are income limits for funding a Roth IRA — see the FAQs below.

Even if you have a 401(k) or another workplace plan, it can make sense to save in a Roth IRA — as long as you also make sure to get any company 401(k) match you may be offered — because a Roth IRA account often offers more investment choices. This is important because your investment returns will have a big impact on your savings over time.

Say you put $500 every month into a Roth IRA (which would total the annual maximum of $6,000). If you earn an annual average return of 8%, that gets you about $475,000 after 25 years. Even if you earn a more conservative 6%, you would end up with over $345,000 after 25 years.

Need more help with this process? See our guide on Roth IRAs.

Choose your investment style

Pick the investor type that describes you so we can point you toward the best provider for your situation:

  • I’m a “do-it-yourself” investor. You can open a Roth IRA at an online broker, then choose your own investments (this may be simpler than you think — you can build a diversified portfolio with just three or four mutual funds). With the providers detailed below, you generally won’t pay an account fee (though that may require your agreeing to electronic document delivery or maintaining a minimum account balance), so the primary costs you need to watch for are trading commissions and investment fees, which are also called expense ratios
  • I’m a “manage it for me” investor. If you would rather have someone pick an investment portfolio for you, you can open your Roth IRA at a robo-advisor. Robo-advisors are online investment services that build and maintain a diversified portfolio for you. You pay a small fee for the service, but the fees tend to be substantially lower than for a human financial advisor — typically 0.25% to 0.50% of the assets under management annually. These services are growing rapidly: One of our top robo-advisor picks, Wealthfront, has over $11 billion in assets under management.

Roth IRA FAQs

What is the best bank for a Roth IRA?

As you can see, our roundup of the best Roth IRAs focuses on accounts offered by brokers and robo-advisors — not banks. Generally, a broker or robo-advisor is a better option than a bank for a Roth IRA account. That’s because, for a long-term goal like retirement, you want to harness the power of the stock market to help your account get bigger.

Bank Roth IRAs generally offer access to savings products, such as certificates of deposit. CDs are savings vehicles that guarantee a rate of return as long as you leave your money in for a specific period of time. Historically, stock market returns average about 10% a year. CDs are currently offering about 3%.

Of course, those higher stock market returns come with the risk that, in any given year, your account may lose value. But investors who leave their money in the market, even through those down days, enjoy hefty average gains over time.

If, despite the much lower rate of return, you decide to go with a bank for your Roth IRA account, be sure to pick among the accounts with the best IRA CD rates so you know you’re getting the best possible rate of return for that type of account.

Is it a good idea to invest in a Roth IRA?

The short answer? Yes, it’s almost always a good idea to invest in a Roth IRA account.

Roth IRAs offer a sweet tax benefit for retirement savers. Plus, you can withdraw your contributions at any time, without penalty, which means a Roth can act as a backup emergency fund.

Keep in mind that Roth IRAs don’t offer an immediate tax break. Your investment earnings grow tax-free in the Roth IRA account, and you never pay taxes on those earnings, assuming you follow the withdrawal rules.

Now, if your tax rate is the same when you contribute to the account as it is later, when you withdraw the money, then a Roth IRA and a traditional IRA offer essentially the same benefit. The only difference is the timing of your tax bill — with a traditional IRA you pay your tax bill later and with a Roth you pay your tax bill upfront.

But many people find that their tax rate changes over time. If your tax rate is likely to be higher in the future — that’s often the case for young adults who are just starting out in their careers — then a Roth makes sense, because you pay the income tax on your contributions now, when your tax rate is lower.

Of course, it can be really hard to know what your future tax rate will be, especially if retirement is decades away, so it can make sense to contribute both to a 401(k) or traditional IRA, and to a Roth IRA, if you qualify.

No matter what, if you have a 401(k) or other workplace retirement plan, contribute enough to get the match — that’s free money you don’t want to pass up.

How much do Roth IRAs earn?

How much you earn in a Roth IRA account will vary, depending on what you’re investing in. The average annual stock market return historically has been about 10%.

Of course, you want to invest in a diversified portfolio of both stocks and bonds, so that your account has a buffer from the stock market’s inevitable ups and downs. Generally, creating a diversified investment portfolio means investing in a handful of mutual funds or exchange-traded funds, which, in turn, invest in a broad swath of stocks and bonds.

A diversified investment portfolio will inevitably earn less than the stock market’s return, because bond yields tend to be in the single digits. Still, a diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds generally earns more than any bank savings product, such as a savings account or CD.

Do I qualify for a Roth?

The Roth IRA has income rules for contributions. For 2019, the amount you can contribute begins to phase down at $122,000 in annual income for single filers and $193,000 for those married filing jointly. (For 2018, phase downs begin at $120,000 and $189,000.) The contribution limit is slowly reduced until your ability to contribute is eliminated completely. If your income is above these amounts, our Roth IRA calculator tells you your contribution limit.

With a traditional IRA and a Roth IRA, the contribution limit is a shared limit — you can contribute a total of up to $6,000 per year ($7,000 if age 50 or older), and it’s up to you to decide how you want to divvy that up between the two.

How easily can I access money in my Roth IRA?

With a Roth IRA, you can pull your contributions out at any time — remember, you’ve already paid taxes on that money.

However, if you withdraw your investment earnings, you may owe income tax and/or a 10% penalty, depending on how old you are and how long you’ve owned the account. But there are quite a few situations where an early withdrawal of investment earnings is exempt from penalties and income tax. We detail those exceptions here.

How much can I contribute to a Roth?

In 2019, you can contribute up to $6,000 a year, or $7,000 if you’re 50 or older, unless your contribution is reduced by the income rules noted above. The contribution limit applies only to new contributions to the account, not rollovers.

Can I contribute to a Roth IRA if I already have a 401(k) or a traditional IRA?

Yes. You can have both a Roth IRA and a 401(k) and contribute the maximum you’re allowed to each.

Traditional IRAs don’t have income limits, but if you’re also covered by a workplace retirement plan like a 401(k), the amount of your contribution that you can deduct may be phased down or eliminated.

That means you can still make the maximum annual contribution, but a portion or all of it will be considered a nondeductible contribution. There’s no immediate tax benefit on nondeductible contributions, but you're still able to defer taxes on investment income until retirement. Read more about the traditional IRA deduction limits.

How do I open a Roth IRA?

The process is easy as can be: You can open a Roth IRA at any online broker or robo-advisor, typically online in about 15 minutes. You’ll need to provide some personal information like your name, address, birthday, Social Security number and means of funding the account, so have that handy. Here’s our step-by-step guide to opening a Roth IRA, including details about how to fund and invest the account.

How will my Roth IRA grow?

Unlike savings accounts, Roth IRAs don’t pay a set interest rate or return. Once you’ve put money into the account, you need to select investments; otherwise, your money will sit in cash, which isn’t ideal for a long-term goal like retirement. Most Roth IRA providers offer a wide range of investment options, including individual stocks, bonds and mutual funds.

If that sounds out of your league, you can open your Roth IRA at a robo-advisor — like the two mentioned above — which will manage your investments for you for a small fee.

8 Best Online Stock Brokers for Beginners of September 2019

When you’re a beginner investor, the right brokerage account can be so much more than simply a platform for placing trades. It can help you build a solid investing foundation — functioning as a teacher, advisor and investment analyst — and serve as a lifelong portfolio co-pilot as your skills and strategy mature.

What are stock brokers?

Stock brokers are people or firms licensed to buy and sell stocks and other securities via the stock market exchanges. Back in the day, the only way for individuals to invest directly in stocks was to hire stock brokers to place trades on their behalf. But what was once a clunky, costly transaction conducted via landline telephones now takes place online in seconds, for a fraction of what full-service brokers used to charge for the service. Today, most investors place their trades through an online brokerage account. (A little lost? Check out our explainers on brokerage accounts and buying stocks.)

9 Best Online Brokers for Stock Trading of September 2019

More guidance to help you pick the right online broker

Here are more NerdWallet resources to answer your questions about online brokerage accounts.

How much money do I need to get started investing? Not much. Note that many of the brokers above have no account minimums for both taxable brokerage accounts and IRAs. Once you open an account, all it takes to get started is enough money to cover the cost of a single share of a stock and the trading commission. (See “How to Buy Stocks” for step-by-step instructions on placing that first trade.)

Shouldn’t I just choose the cheapest broker? Trading costs definitely matter to active and high-volume traders. If you’re a high-volume trader — buying bundles of 100 to 500 shares at a time, for example — Interactive Brokers and TradeStation are cost-effective options. Ally Invest offers $3.95 trades ($1 off full price) for investors who place more than 30 trades a quarter.  Commissions are less of a factor for buy-and-hold investors, a strategy we recommend for the majority of people. Most online brokers charge from $5 to $7 per trade. But other factors — access to a range of investments or training tools — may be more valuable than saving a few bucks when you purchase shares.

How can I build a diversified portfolio for little money? One easy way is to invest in exchange-traded funds. ETFs are essentially bite-sized mutual funds that are bought and sold just like individual stocks on a stock market exchange. Like mutual funds, each ETF contains a basket of stocks (sometimes hundreds) that adhere to particular criteria (e.g., shares of companies that are part of a stock market index like the S&P 500). Unlike mutual funds, which can have high investment minimums, investors can purchase as little as one share of an ETF at a time.

We like the low-cost, diversified nature of ETFs. And because they are such an essential portfolio-building tool, we rated brokers on their ETF offerings, specifically the number of commission-free ETFs they offer. Standouts include TD Ameritrade, which offers over 300, Charles Schwab (265) and E-Trade (250).

Is my money insured? What kind of account? How quickly can I start trading? The short answers are:

  • Your money is indeed insured, but only against the unlikely event a brokerage firm or investment company goes under. A broker’s SIPC coverage (Securities Investor Protection Corporation) doesn't cover any loss in value of your investments.
  • Your account choices boil down to taxable versus tax-favored (e.g., an IRA). Our guide to brokerage accounts goes into more detail about what’s involved in setting up a taxable account. Opening an IRA involves choosing which type, such as a Roth IRA, traditional IRA or SEP IRA. If you're new to this, we’ve got you covered in our guide to IRAs.
  • After you’ve opened the account, you’ll need to initiate a deposit or funds transfer to the brokerage firm, which can take anywhere from a few days to a week. Once that is complete, it’s off to the investing races! And by that we mean taking a thoughtful and disciplined approach to investing your money for the long-term.

How do I determine if a brokerage firm is right for me before I open an account? Some key criteria to consider when evaluating any investment company are how much money you have, what type of assets you intend to buy, your trading style and technical needs, how frequently you plan to transact and how much service you need. Our post about how to choose the best broker for you can help you sort through the features brokerage firms offer and rank your priorities.

Best Banks and Credit Unions September 2019

At NerdWallet, we strive to help you make financial decisions with confidence. To do this, many or all of the products featured here are from our partners. However, this doesn’t influence our evaluations. Our opinions are our own.

The best bank or credit union for you depends on what you’re in the market for: a savings account, a checking account, or both.

NerdWallet spent more than 200 hours comparing and rating dozens of financial institutions to identify those with the best deposit accounts. Skip ahead to our top picks.

Top Overall Banks: Three financial institutions earned spots in both our best checking and best savings accounts lists. If you want to keep your checking and savings accounts at the same bank, go with one of these options.

Our list includes a credit union. Generally speaking, credit unions emphasize customer service more than banks do and pay higher interest rates — although online accounts, like the ones on this list, tend to pay great rates, too. Read our article for more on credit unions vs. banks.

Top Savings Accounts: If you’d like to split your accounts between different banks, consider one of these savings accounts. They have annual percentage yields above 2% — much higher than the national average of 0.09%. This is important because people typically use savings accounts to set money aside for goals, such as a trip or a down payment on a house. Your savings will grow faster with one of these accounts. Read more in our article about savings accounts.

Top Checking Accounts: If you’re more interested in checking accounts, these banks offer perks, such as interest or ATM fee reimbursements. And, crucially, they have large ATM networks and don’t charge monthly fees. Since checking accounts hold most people’s daily spending money, they should be easy to access and cheap to maintain. Read more in our article about checking accounts.

+ See a summary of NerdWallet's best banks and credit unions

Best banks and credit unions:

  • Best overall, best for customer service: Ally Bank
  • Best overall, best for cash-back rewards: Discover Bank
  • Best overall, best for ATM availability: Alliant Credit Union
  • Best for savings, 2.20% APY: HSBC
  • Best for savings, 2.00% APY: Marcus by Goldman Sachs
  • Best for savings, 2.00% APY: Barclays
  • Best for checking, flexible overdraft options: Capital One 360
  • Best for checking, interest, worldwide ATM reimbursements: Charles Schwab Bank


Top Overall Banks Discover

Learn More

at Discover,

Member, FDIC

Discover Bank

4.5

NerdWallet rating

  • Over 60,000 free ATMs, cash-back rewards
  • 2.00% savings APY
  • Read more in our Discover review
Ally Bank

Read Review

Ally Bank

4.5

NerdWallet rating

    • Over 43,000 ATMs, strong customer service
    • 1.90% savings APY
    • Read more in our Ally review
Alliant Credit Union

Read Review

Alliant Credit Union

4.5

NerdWallet rating

  • Over 80,000 free ATMs, interest checking available
  • 2.10% savings APY
  • Read more in our Alliant review

» Looking for more excellent savings options? Browse our best savings accounts

Top Checking Accounts Capital One

Read Review


Capital One 360

4.5

NerdWallet rating

  • Flexible overdraft options, APYs starting at 0.20%
  • Read more in our Capital One 360 review
Schwab Bank

Read Review


Charles Schwab Bank

4.0

NerdWallet rating

  • Unlimited ATM reimbursements worldwide, 0.31% APY
  • Read more in our Charles Schwab review

 

» For more checking options, take a look at our best checking accounts

Monday, September 2, 2019

ScratchWorks Kicks Off Its 3rd Annual Star Search

ScratchWorks — a fintech accelerator founded by six leading RIAs — launched its third annual program intended to help innovative startup and emerging fintech firms find funding.

The ScratchWorks website is now open for submissions for emerging and startup fintech companies to pitch their business models, products and platforms for potential investment from the six investors who started the accelerator, it said Tuesday.

Those ScratchWorks investors are Marty Bicknell, CEO of Mariner Wealth Advisors; Dick Burridge, CEO of RMB Capital; John Eadie, CEO of Covenant; Jon Jones, CEO of Brighton Jones; Michael Nathanson, CEO of The Colony Group; and Shannon Eusey, CEO of Beacon Pointe Advisors. Collectively, these six RIAs manage over $70 billion in assets for high-net-worth clients.

The fintech firms selected to compete this time will get to make their pitches at the Barron’s Top Independent Advisor Summit, March 18-20, in Louisville, Kentucky.

Earlier this year, ScratchWorks held its “Season 2″ event live at the Barron’s Top Independent Advisors Conference, where pitches were presented by semi-finalists that included 280 CapMarkets and its fixed income trading and software-based price discovery platform; AdvicePay, the fee-for-service billing platform from advisors Michael Kitces and Alan Moore; and SolidusLink, a digital gold technology platform.

280 CapMarkets has seen “dramatic growth” in RIA firms using its cloud-based BondNav platform, which highlights the success of the company’s new features and other enhancements, Gurinder Ahluwalia, the company’s CEO and co-founder, told ThinkAdvisor last week.

Advisor-focused marketing technology company Snappy Kraken, which was granted $100,000 at the inaugural ScratchWorks event in March 2018, was granted an additional $1 million in September, followed by $2.5 million last month, Kevin Corbett, senior vice president of strategic initiatives at Mariner Wealth Advisors, recently told ThinkAdvisor, pointing out he’s directly responsible for managing the ScratchWorks program. The latest seed funding round was led by Bicknell, who said in a statement Tuesday that he and the other ScratchWorks investors were “extremely impressed with the caliber” of the participating fintech firms the first two times.

Continuing their support of the ScratchWorks program for the third time as sponsors are Fidelity Clearing & Custody Solutions and the University of Colorado Leeds School of Business.

5 Hurricane Dorian Prep Ideas, for Annuity Professionals

Here's a look at 3 things the National Hurricane Center is saying about Hurricane Dorian, as of Tuesday...

Credit: National Hurricane Center/NOAA

1. The Atlantic Ocean could surge inland, in communities from Jupiter, Florida, up past Wilmington, North Carolina.

Credit: National Hurricane Center/NOAA

2. Dorian could cause winds over 39 miles per hour in areas all along the East Coast, including in cities like Philadelphia, New York and Boston.

Credit: National Hurricane Center/NOAA

3. Flash floods could hit areas far from the beach, where no one is thinking about hurricane risk.

Credit: National Hurricane Center/NOAA

The weather is unpredictable. Hurricane Dorian could flood many areas near the East Coast, or it could just cause a few ordinary thunderstorms.

But the hurricane has already caused terrible devastation for people in the northern Bahamas, and it has already served as a reminder of why people use insurance to manage risk.

Financial professionals who focus on helping clients use annuities in retirement planning may see Dorian as a concern mainly for property and casualty insurance agents

(Related: 3 Ways Harvey Is Touching the Life and Health Community Now)

Here’s a look at five ways annuity professionals can play a role in hardening prospects and clients against natural catastrophe risk, as well as against the risk of outliving retirement income.

1. You can help make holistic planning a habit.

You want employers, agents who sell term life insurance, and stockbrokers to remind clients that they might want to retire someday, and that an annuity can help provide a guaranteed source of lifetime income.

You can repay the favor by reminding your retirement planning clients that one way to protect their retirement arrangements is to have solid protection against flood, fire and windstorm risk.

2. You can encourage good paperwork hygiene.

Some life insurers are now encouraging affiliated financial professionals to market services such as the EverPlans important papers vault, and the digital vault-based LegacyShield program.

This might be a good time to test those kinds of services yourself, and encourage clients to try them.

3. You can set a good disaster prep example.

Your carriers probably offer great disaster prep webinars and guides.

Groups for such as the National Association of Insurance Financial Advisors (NAIFA) also offer disaster prep tools.

NAIFA, for example, has posted business disaster prep tips here.

4. You can communicate.

Many annuity professionals are using social media services to express their thoughts about Hurricane Dorian — and, possibly, to show how a live-human advisor is different from an AI bot.

A number of financial professionals affiliated with Ameriprise Financial Services Inc. who are active on Twitter have already tweeted about Dorian. Jonathan Ingalls, an Ameriprise branch manager in Connecticut, tweeted today, “As Hurricane Dorian approaches, our thoughts are with everyone in the affected areas. Please stay safe.”

5. You can find and sell more good annuities that suit your clients’ needs.

Hurricanes and other natural disasters can affect anyone, but people who have their own source of retirement income may be able to reduce their risk, by choosing homes that meet the latest, toughest building codes; having cash they can use to buy airplane tickets and hotel rooms; and signing up for homeowners insurance or renters insurance policies that include strong disaster recovery benefits.

Clients with adequate retirement income may also be able to make life, and death, a little less unfair, by opening their homes and wallets to help friends, relatives and neighbors who are in dire need.

— Read LTCI Watch: Hell Planningon ThinkAdvisor.

— Connect with ThinkAdvisor Life/Health on FacebookLinkedIn and Twitter.

Volcker Rule Changes: The Good, Bad and Ugly

Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker.

Welcome back to Human Capital! I’m Melanie Waddell in Washington. This week we’re checking in with Gail Bernstein, general counsel for the Investment Adviser Association, on how the recent decision by the FDIC and OCC to “simplify and tailor” banks’ proprietary trading via changes to the Volcker Rule directly impacts investment advisors and asset managers. 

To be sure, the Aug. 20 modifications — which set new compliance parameters and put limits on banks’ market-making activities — are getting mixed reviews. Dennis Kelleher, president and CEO of Better Markets, calls them a “weakening” of the Volcker Rule ban on proprietary trading by banks that will give Wall Street “its biggest victory since the 2008 financial crisis.”

House Financial Services Committee Chairwoman Maxine Waters, D-Calif., chalked up the revisions as carrying out President Donald Trump’s “reckless deregulatory agenda,” stating the changes “could potentially leave taxpayers at risk of having to once again foot the bill for unnecessary and burdensome bank bailouts.”

FDIC Chairwoman Jelena McWilliams argued when the final changes passed that simplifying the post-crisis Volcker Rule, ushered in by the Dodd-Frank Act in 2010, was needed, as Volcker has been “the most challenging to implement” for regulators and the industry. “Distinguishing between what qualifies as proprietary trading and what does not has proven to be extremely difficult,” she said.

What’s the Volcker Rule? Former President Barack Obama proposed the Volcker Rule in January 2010, to recognize former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker’s “aggressive pursuit” of prohibiting banking entities from engaging in proprietary trading and from owning or controlling hedge funds or private equity funds.

Proprietary trading by Wall Street’s biggest banks and derivatives dealers “generates enormous profits, huge margins and the biggest bonuses,” Kelleher maintains.

Excessive proprietary trading can lead to banks’ failure and “incentivizes bankers to make the biggest bets because they get to use other people’s money (from taxpayer-backed deposits) and keep the winnings but shift any losses to the bank and taxpayers,” Kelleher says.

Kelleher cites Morgan Stanley’s loss of more than $9 billion on a single bet in December 2007 along with JPMorgan’s loss of more than $6 billion in 2012 from its so-called ‘London Whale’ trades.

But FDIC’s McWilliams argues that banks doing “relatively little trading are required to go through substantial compliance exercises to ensure that activities that have long been considered traditional banking activities do not run afoul” of the Volcker Rule.

The final rule includes a host of changes, and becomes effective on Jan. 1, 2020, with a compliance date of Jan. 1, 2021.

The revised rule applies a three-tiered compliance regimen based on an entity’s trading activity, with the most heavily regulated being entities with $20 billion or more in consolidated trading assets and liabilities.

“Banking entities,” explains IAA’s Bernstein, are banks and their affiliates, including investment advisors or asset managers that have a bank “in the corporate family.”

Funds that are affiliates of a bank are considered “banking entities” and subject to the Volcker Rule, she continued, which “created some rather strange situations, including that a mutual fund (registered investment company) wouldn’t be able to make short term investments” and that “covered funds, if they were considered affiliates of a bank, wouldn’t be able to make short-term investments.”

The final rule addressed an IAA concern: “That the proposed accounting prong under the so-called trading account definition — which is part of the proprietary trading prohibition — was too broad and would sweep in instruments that weren’t even covered by the earlier definition,” Bernstein relays.

This proposed prong, she said, was “rejected in favor of remaining focused on the idea of short-term intent and now making it clear that a financial instrument held for 60 days or longer will presumptively not be considered short-term.”

What’s next? IAA wants the Volcker agencies to treat U.S. registered funds and foreign public funds the same, and to exclude both of them from the “banking entity” definition in the next proposal. Also, the Securities and Exchange Commission, Federal Reserve Board and Commodity Futures Trading Commission must approve the FDIC’s Aug. 20 changes.

— Related on ThinkAdvisor:

For HNW Clients, Digital Convenience Is No Substitute for a Personal Connection

Tech deals, handshake (Image: Shutterstock)

Much has been written about the significant changes in the wealth management industry driven by digital innovation. Digital tools that enable financial advisors to do more in less time for clients — while also giving clients a more convenient and personalized wealth management experience — are indeed essential for helping advisory practices grow and remain competitive.

However, while cutting-edge technology can improve and streamline many aspects of financial planning and wealth management, even the fanciest features and most sophisticated capabilities can’t replicate a close advisor/client relationship based on trust and understanding. These relationships are important to clients, especially for those with high net worth.

Without a solid foundation at the heart of their relationships with advisors, high-net-worth clients will leave — even if their advisors are using the latest technology to improve investment outcomes. Capgemini’s World Wealth Report 2018 found that, among HNW investors, satisfaction with advisors and investment returns do not necessarily grow together proportionally.

Globally, HNW investors garnered investment returns of above 20% in 2016 and 2017. However, for every 1.0% of investment performance delivered during the two-year period between Q1 2016 and Q1 2018, HNW investors’ satisfaction with advisors only increased by 0.1% to 0.4%.

Capgemini’s research demonstrates that higher investment outcomes aren’t enough for advisors to increase satisfaction and retention among their HNW clients. In fact, despite two consecutive years of investment returns above 20%, wealth management firm retention among the HNW client segment is decreasing.

As of Q1 2018, HNW clients engaged the services of 2.2 wealth management firms, on average—down from 2.6 in 2014, according to Capgemini.

Digital Innovation Shouldn’t Just Check a Box

Best-in-class technology can potentially enable advisors to become more operationally efficient and enhance investment outcomes for clients, but without a trusting advisor/client relationship, HNW clients won’t be impressed. Capgemini reported that only 55.5% of HNW investors around the world feel strongly connected to their wealth managers.

This is a crucial finding. Since HNW investors are retaining fewer advisors and wealth managers, they are likely seeking to consolidate assets with those they trust and value the most. If just a little over half of HNW investors have a strong relationship with their advisors, then advisors that focus on building and enhancing personal connections with clients have a higher chance of becoming the primary wealth manager for HNW investors.

When evaluating prospective technology solutions and platforms, advisors need to keep client engagement top of mind. Digital innovations shouldn’t be implemented just because they streamline workflows and offer more reporting options — advisors should also make sure they can bolster communication and collaboration with clients. Similarly, when updating proprietary software and tools, advisors should make enhancements that can help clients feel like they are more involved, informed and in control.

For example, an advisory practice’s client portal shouldn’t just be a tool where clients can log in to view account performance or access reports and other documents. It should be a gateway where clients can communicate with their advisor to ask questions and obtain guidance in real time. Furthermore, some modern client portals include interactive presentation features that enable advisors to make comprehensive digital presentations demonstrating unlimited scenarios or educating clients about certain investment products and strategies. Some portals also enable clients to try out scenarios themselves and view the potential long-term impact of potential portfolio adjustments.

Opportunity Knocks

Capgemini reported that global HNW individual wealth grew by 10.6% in 2017 to exceed $70 trillion for the first time — and estimates that HNW individuals’ wealth will surpass $100 trillion by 2025. The ongoing growth of HNW investor wealth presents an ideal opportunity for independent advisors who understand the importance of forging strong personal connections with clients.

Angela Pecoraro is CEO of Advicent, the financial planning technology provider for more than 140,000 financial professionals across more than 3,000 firms worldwide.

The 85/15 Leadership-Technical Knowledge Disconnect

Many advisors are quietly living in denial. Although we love digging into stats and data on the job, 85% of our success comes from our ability to communicate, negotiate, and lead. Only 15% comes from our technical knowledge—the details we discuss with clients that they use to make decisions about products like insurance and investments.

But if you go to any industry conference, you’ll find the numbers flipped: 85% of the conference sessions focus on technical knowledge and skill, and only 15% focus on leadership.

(Related: 3 Ways to Add Skin to the Game)

There’s an ingrained focus among financial pros that centers on the technical side of the business. We love digging into the numbers because that’s where we feel most comfortable — and there is less ambiguity. But that comfort is ultimately toxic. The more technical something is, the more likely it can be commoditized, outsourced, or replaced with AI.

More importantly, our clients don’t want technical knowledge. They want confidence that you’ll recommend the right product and generate the best results possible, that you’ll be by their side through the good times and bad. That confidence isn’t sparked by a minute technical fact.

For an example, think about when you need help with something on the job, such as with your cell phone or computer. A small percentage of us want to know how to build the clock, so to speak, but most of us just want it to tell us the time. When someone is guiding us, we want to be led with the right combination of kindness and humility coupled with knowledge and genuineness.

None of us can improve if we don’t practice. Take it from referral coach Bill Cates, who’s been helping professionals develop into better networkers to drive more qualified referrals for more than three decades now. In a recent LinkedIn referral fitness video, Bill tells the story of a manager who oversaw a producer on his team. The manager recognized the producer’s productivity, but he also noted he could be even more effective if he improved on earning more referrals.

To help, the manager approached the producer and made a few observations. The producer was an avid golfer. He regularly warmed up before hitting the links, he practiced his putts and drives, paid for a golf coach, and he was always on the lookout for the latest golf equipment. The manager concluded with a valuable lesson: The producer wasn’t a professional golfer, but he trained like one. How much better would he become at his day job if put the same dedicated effort into growing his client referrals? How many higher-revenue clients would he manage to attract?

The same principles hold true in bettering your leadership skills. One of the best advisors we know outsources the technical side to other team members so he can focus on sales. He has three coaches: one for sales, one for business, and one for advising. Like the golfer in Bill’s example, the advisor put in the extra effort to improve. The results speak for themselves: The advisor is now one of the best in the industry because he spends more time focusing on the 85% of the job that matters most , not simply what is more comfortable.

Becoming a great leader and communicator is difficult, but it’s an essential part of professional growth. The only way to improve is to continuously train and build on those skills, the same way you would on the golf course. We have to stop doing the things that are easy and start doing the things that are hard.

At the end of the day, the only one who can hold you accountable is you. You’re the one that has to take the first step in expanding your skill set to become a stronger leader.

— Read 6 Ways to Capture the Rewards Hiding in the Unknown, on ThinkAdvisor.

John Pojeta

John Pojeta is vice president of business development at The PT Services Group. Before he joined PT, he owned and operated an Ameriprise Financial Services franchise for 16 years.

NAIC Seeks 2020 Funded Consumer Reps

The National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) is recruiting applicants for its 2020 Consumer Liaison Program.

(Related: Annuity Rules Should Apply to Investment-Type Life Products: Consumer Reps)

The NAIC is a Kansas City, Missouri-based group for state insurance regulators. It does not generally have direct authority to change state insurance laws or regulations, but, in some cases, states have made arrangements for NAIC changes to some rules, such as financial performance reporting rules, to apply automatically.

States often start with NAIC model laws, regulations and guidelines when developing their own proposals.

The consumer liaison program gives representatives from consumer organizations a chance to speak for consumer interests at in-person NAIC meetings, and at NAIC conference call meetings.

The NAIC started the consumer liaison program in 1992.

The NAIC helps pay the NAIC meeting travel expenses of “funded” consumer reps.

Unfunded reps must pay their own meeting travel expenses.

For 2020, the NAIC will provide about $136,000 in funding to pay for the funded reps meeting travel, according to a public memorandum to consumer rep program applicants.

Lois Alexander, the NAIC staffer who wrote the memo, says in the memo that the NAIC now has 22 funded reps.

Would-be consumer reps must “demonstrate a commitment to and experience with consumer advocacy regarding insurance regulatory issues” and “demonstrate an expertise in insurance regulatory issues,” according descriptions of the rep program selection criteria.

The application deadline is 5 p.m. Central Time Oct. 31.

Resources

Information about the NAIC’s consumer liaison program application process is available here.

— Read NAIC Names 2019 Consumer Repson ThinkAdvisor.

— Connect with ThinkAdvisor Life/Health on FacebookLinkedIn and Twitter.

Coterie Adds Mini Med Option for Self-Insured Employers

Doctor (Credit: Dave Berk/Thinkstock)

A company has developed a group mini medical program designed for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) age.

The company, Coterie Advisory Group Inc. of Scottsdale, Arizona, says its new Fundamental Care health plan will provide affordable, no-deductible health coverage.

(Related: How Minimal Can ACA-Required Coverage Be?)

The plan keeps costs low by providing coverage that’s solid enough for workers to avoid having to pay any ACA “individual shared responsibility” penalties, but too limited for employers to use the coverage to avoid paying ACA “employer shared responsibility” penalties.

‘Minimum Essential Coverage’ and ‘Minimum Value’

The ACA requires many people to have what the government classifies as “minimum essential coverage” (MEC), or solid major medical coverage, or else pay a penalty.

Almost any employer-sponsored coverage that covers certain preventive care services can qualify as MEC.

The ACA also requires many employers that are classified as large employers to provide MEC with a minimum actuarial value or else pay a penalty.

The minimum value is about 60% of the actuarial value of the cost of a state’s “essential health benefits” package, or standard benefits package,

For now, Congress has set the individual shared responsibility penalty for individuals at $0.

Employers affected by the employer coverage mandate may still have to pay employer shared responsibility penalties if their permanent, full-time employees apply for coverage through the Affordable Care Act public exchange system and end up qualifying for premium tax credit subsidies.

The Coterie Plan

Coterie — an insurance program manager and national marketing agency — says it designed the new health plan to appeal to small, self-insured employers that are too small to have to worry about employer coverage mandate penalties, and to larger employers that want to provide coverage for temporary, seasonal or part-time workers.

The plan costs about 70% of what a traditional high-deductible major medical plan would cost, but it has no deductibles and no medical questionnaires, according to Coterie.

The plan will pay for only three days of inpatient hospital care, and it does modest co-payment requirements, Coterie says.

The plan will provide unlimited benefits for preventive care, telemedicine care and outpatient care, the company says.

Eligible employers must agree to pay at least $50 per employee per month for coverage, for a minimum of five employees.

Coterie says the new plans will be reinsured by A-plus-rated insurance companies.

“Coterie is actively looking for benefit advisors and select general agents to help distribute the plans on a national basis in the employee benefits marketplace,” the company says.

Resources

Information about the new program is available here.

— Read 3 Notes on the ACA Ultra-Skinny Plan Guidanceon ThinkAdvisor.

— Connect with ThinkAdvisor Life/Health on FacebookLinkedIn and Twitter.

CFP Board Announces Enforcement Task Force Members

Mercer Bullard, law professor and president of Fund Democracy.

The Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards announced Monday the members of its Independent Task Force on Enforcement, which is tasked with reviewing and updating the organization’s enforcement practices.

The task force, led by former Texas state regulator and CFP Board of Directors public member Denise Voigt Crawford, was formed in late July by the board of directors.

The CFP Board announced on July 31 that the new task force will also be looking at “some important issues” raised by the Wall Street Journal analysis released on July 30 concerning enforcement of CFP certification and the search function of the organization’s consumer-facing website, LetsMakeaPlan.org.

Susan John, chair of CFP Board’s board of directors, said on an Aug. 1 call that throughout 2019, the CFP Board has been reviewing its enforcement procedures to be ready when its new Code and Standards go into effect on Oct. 1.

The task force’s recommendations and report will be made public after the board’s November meeting.

The task force’s members were selected by Crawford and will be working independently of staff and the board of directors, the CFP Board said.

“These individuals have the experience, integrity and forward-thinking approach that will serve the Task Force and CFP Board well,” Crawford said in a statement. “I look forward to all of us rolling up our sleeves and working together to identify ways we can improve the organization’s enforcement program for the benefit of the public.”

In addition to Crawford, members of the task force include:

  • Mercer Bullard, the Butler Snow Lecturer and Professor of Law at the University of Mississippi School of Law. Bullard, who teaches courses on securities, banking and corporations and serves as the director of the Business Law Institute, is also the president and founder of Fund Democracy, a shareholder advocacy group. Bullard previously clerked at the U.S. Court of Appeals, was in private practice at WilmerHale and was the assistant chief counsel for the Division of Investment Management at the Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Michael Huggs, director of the Mississippi Secretary of State Securities Division. Huggs also participated in the Mississippi Secretary of State’s investor education programs as a speaker for the JumpStart Coalition “Money Matters” seminars, which promoted financial literacy to high school students. He is also chairman of the North American Securities Administrators Association’s Investment Adviser Operations Project Group.
  • Richard Salmen, CFP and former chair of the CFP Board’s board of directors. He was also the president of the Financial Planning Association in 2009, and is president of the Family Investment Center outside of Kansas City, Missouri.
  • Nancy Smith, executive vice president, corporate secretary at AARP. Prior to joining AARP, Smith worked at an online brokerage, FOLIOfn, and served as New Mexico’s director of securities; she also headed the Office of Investor Education and Assistance at the SEC, and served on the staff of the House of Representatives’ Subcommittee on Telecommunications and Finance.

— Related on ThinkAdvisor:

A Plan to Save Social Security Without a Tax Hike on the Wealthy

Social Security authority William Reichenstein has a way to fix the “broken” government retirement and disability benefits program, as he so frames it. Indeed, his way is 180 degrees from the reforms proposed by prominent politicians who mainly want to tax the wealthy and pay those funds mostly to lower income people, Reichenstein argues in an interview with ThinkAdvisor.

Forecasts hold that the Social Security trust fund will run dry in only 16 years. Hence, the system must be reformed — either by raising taxes or reducing benefits, Reichenstein says.

The Baylor University professor emeritus and head of research at Social Security Solutions focuses on the interaction between investments and taxes.

This past spring he released new research assessing Social Security reform proposals and put forth his own two-tier plan for how to restore health to the system. The research appeared in the May issue of the Journal of Retirement.

Focused on reducing Social Security’s income-redistribution elements, Reichenstein contends that reform proposals by former Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey; Rep. John Larson, D-Conn.;  and Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, a Democratic presidential candidate, are “unfair” to the wealthy.

In October, the chartered financial analyst is scheduled to speak at the Financial Planning Association’s 2019 conference in Minneapolis. This coincides with publication of Reichenstein’s new book, “Income Strategy,” which explores his tax-efficient withdrawal strategies for retirement income.

Social Security Solutions — whose clients include BlackRock and Vanguard — turns Reichenstein’s strategies into software tools designed to make optimal claiming decisions.

ThinkAdvisor recently interviewed Reichenstein, who was speaking by phone from Waco, Texas. The Social Security expert insists that reform must occur. More than once he quoted President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, who signed the Social Security Act into law in 1935:

“The Act does not offer anyone … an easy life — nor was it ever intended so to do,” Roosevelt said.

Here are excerpts from our interview:

THINKADVISOR: In a December 2016 interview with me for ThinkAdvisor, you likened the Social Security trust fund’s running out of money to a speeding train heading toward a mountain crash. What are the actual stakes? 

BILL REICHENSTEIN: If we don’t do anything, when the trust fund runs out of money, which is estimated to be in 2035, the Social Security Administration would have to use tax revenue coming in to pay current beneficiaries. The estimated deficit is about [$43 trillion; in 2018 it was $34 trillion] based on promised benefits. But the Social Security Administration doesn’t have the authority to borrow money.

What are the chief options to reform the system in order to prevent a disaster?

One way is to raise taxes; another is to reduce benefits. But it would be very difficult to reduce benefits.

What do you think of the proposals that some politicians have put forward?

[Former] Gov. Chris Christie’s plan calls for means-testing: [The scenario would be:] You and I make the same income for the same number of years. You save; I don’t. His plan would take away money from higher income people who have saved and give it to others. That’s not fair. It’s an income redistribution plan. Social Security already has pretty strong income-redistribution features. The message of his plan is that if you save up income to supplement Social Security, you’ll be penalized by having your benefits reduced. That ain’t gonna work!

What about the other proposals?

Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Peter DeFazio’s [Social Security Expansion Act] is [also] going to take money from the wealthy and give it to lower-income people. Their plan is to tax unearned income — interest, dividends, capital gains — above a certain level and use the money to subsidize Social Security benefits. This is adding almost pure 100% income redistribution features. They want to tax earnings but grant no additional benefits for that.

There’s also Rep. John Larson’s Social Security 2100 Act. It proposes to increase benefits but to require payroll taxes for wages above $400,000.

This is really a redistribution plan, too. It says let’s raise the earnings cap.

How would you sum up these proposals?

They’re unfair. The whole idea of Social Security is that the government is going to require you to save a certain portion of your income so that you have a modest base in retirement to build your individual security — and we’re going to guarantee you this modest base. You’re not going to starve to death. But it’s not designed to provide luxury: If you want more than that in retirement, save it [on your own]. Proposals saying that we’re going to tax the wealthy and have that money go entirely to other people is not a required income savings plan. It’s an income redistribution plan.

How or where do people save money in “a required income savings plan”? 

It goes to the government and back into the trust fund. Eventually it will be used to pay the benefits the government has promised you.

What’s the focus of the plan you propose?

Social Security already has strong income redistribution features. I would like to reduce those. I propose a two-tier system. One is an [insurance] welfare component, which is a relatively small portion. I’m more than willing to take some of my income and pay it to people who are disabled and need help. But there are millions of state and local employees that are not part of the Social Security system — for example public school teachers in Texas — who don’t have to pay their share of those welfare benefits because they have their own retirement plans [through employers]. Everybody ought to pay for those [benefits]. We have to help the disabled who can’t work.

What’s the second part of your proposed system?

The retirement income portion. The benefits from that should be based on taxes paid into the system. There ought to be some relationship between benefits received and taxes paid. I want people to receive additional benefits based on the additional money they continue to pay into the system. So if they continue to work more than 35 years, their benefits will continue to rise.

Please explain the tax increase your plan calls for.

Raise taxes to make the [current] 12.4% payroll tax — of the first $132,900 of income — higher.  That is, [2.4%] of the payroll tax would go to finance the insurance portion of the system, and the remaining 10% would go to the retirement income component. This isn’t perfect, but it would be a whole lot better than raising the income limit.

All in all, then, do you think those who earn over a certain amount shouldn’t have to contribute, through taxes, to the Social Security benefits of people who don’t earn as much [apart from the disabled]?

Yes. That’s the idea of a required savings program. Someone at the lower income level is already going to get paid more than twice as much lifetime per dollar [benefits] than they pay in. So we’re already giving a great deal to lower-income people. And now they’re talking about transforming Social Security into almost entirely a redistribution [program] by taxing additional income, which is going to be paid mainly to the poor.

What might financial advisors recommend concerning Social Security to clients who are near retirement?

I would encourage them to base their decisions about benefits on what [the Social Security Administration] is currently promising them, though there’s no guarantee. But I think it would be very difficult for Congress to say, “Here’s this 80-year-old grandmother whose only income is Social Security, and we’re going to take away some of those benefits because the trust fund ran out.”

Has President Trump weighed in lately about the expectation that the trust fund will dry up? 

He hasn’t given any specific proposals that I have seen.

— Related on ThinkAdvisor:

Sunday, September 1, 2019

Trade War to Hit Americans' Pockets, Literally

Americans better have made the most of their Labor Day discount shopping. It could be the last they see for a long time.

A 15% tariff that went into effect Sept. 1 on about $112 billion of goods imported from China will start pushing up prices of clothing, shoes and other consumer goods arriving at U.S. ports this week.

That should start taking a serious toll on shopping in the U.S. While 82% of intermediate inputs are already affected by tariffs, just 29% of consumer goods have had levies to date.

That figure will now rise to 69%, and 99% when a final tranche is imposed on Dec. 15, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

 The Trump administration – or at least its trade representative, Robert Lighthizer – has recognized the risk of bringing the trade war to consumers’ pockets.

The current total-war scenario, with tariffs imposed on almost the entirety of imports from China, was first threatened more than a year ago, but Lighthizer has worked hard to excise the sorts of goods purchased by price-sensitive shoppers from his product lists.

The latest escalation means that sort of strategic precision is no longer possible. Around the country, apparel retailers have already worked out where best to jack up prices, while toy shops and sporting-goods stores will be doing the same ahead of the post-Thanksgiving tranche.

One unexpected ally for the Trump administration is the retail industry itself. This is a business that invented the term “sticker shock,” after all, so trying to hide the costs of Trump’s policies from consumers isn’t exactly unfamiliar terrain.

“The teams are working on a targeted pricing strategy in certain categories,” Gap Inc. Chief Financial Officer Teri List-Stoll told an investor call last month.

“We have lots of tools in place to monitor elasticity and what the competitive environment is,” Kohl’s Corp. Chief Executive Officer Michelle Gass told analysts Aug. 21. “So we’ll make very sound and surgical decisions.”

There’s already a model for how this is likely to play out. One of the first rounds of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration applied a 25% levy on washing machines, but an April study by economists at the Federal Reserve and University of Chicago found that retailers instead decided to spread the pain around.

Prices for washing machines jumped about 12% more than those of comparable goods after the levies were imposed – which might have suggested that stores and suppliers were taking some of the pain rather than passing the full 25% cost onto consumers.

There was a telling exception, though: The price of dryers rose by about the same magnitude, despite the fact that they weren’t affected by the tariffs. In other words, retailers were splitting the extra cost between two similar products in an attempt to minimize the apparent rise in prices.

As a result, shoppers are unlikely to see markup racks with “Prices raised on account of trade war” tags on them.

Instead, watch out for harder-to-pin-down increases in categories where individual chains have pricing power, as well as weakening of gross margins, cost-sharing with Chinese vendors, and efforts to shift parts of the supply chain to other source countries.

Returns on equity for consumer and durable goods companies in the S&P 500 index are already at recessionary levels, despite the general buoyancy of stocks in 2019; you’d be bold to bet that was set to improve over the balance of the year.

Consumer sentiment is tracking down from its recent rosy levels in any case. Expectations for the economy suffered their sharpest monthly fall since 2012 in the University of Michigan’s latest survey.

Views of current conditions fell to their lowest level since President Donald Trump was elected, and Republicans posted their most pessimistic consumer sentiment since Trump’s inauguration. (There’s a strong partisan split in consumer sentiment, with views jumping sharply depending on whether or not a consumer’s favored party is in the White House.)

The strong U.S. economy over the past two years gave President Trump latitude to prosecute his trade battle with China – but as it starts to weaken, that may test his resolve. Given the relief in financial markets in recent days at signs of a detente, he might want to consider the benefits of a more lasting peace.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Copyright 2019 Bloomberg. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

Sunday, August 4, 2019

Morgan Stanley Introduces Impact Quotient App for Advisors: Portfolio Products

Morgan Stanley launched an investing analytics and reporting application designed to help all Morgan Stanley Wealth Management clients further integrate social and environmental objectives into their investments.

It provides Morgan Stanley Financial Advisors with suggestions for investment solutions that could better align clients’ portfolios over time with the impact preferences that matter most to them.

“Increasingly, our clients and Financial Advisors are looking for data-driven insights to inform their investment decisions,” said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management in a statement.

The Morgan Stanley Impact Quotient (Morgan Stanley IQ) is available at no extra cost for the firm’s clients through its 3D advisor desktop application and is built into the firm’s client reporting system, Matt Slovik, head of Global Sustainable Finance at Morgan Stanley, told ThinkAdvisor.

The application provides customized insights into users’ current investment holdings and allows them to consider sustainability and impact goals through a comprehensive framework to identify and prioritize more than 100 social and environmental impact preferences. Then through “the insights of multiple third-party data sources and proprietary Morgan Stanley analytics” the app can instantly assess the alignment of investments with those preferences,” the company said in its announcement.

AdvicePay Launches New Fee Calculator for Advisors

AdvicePay, the billing and payments platform developed by Michael Kitces and Alan Moore who co-founded the XY Planning Network, has added a fee calculator for financial advisors designed to serve as an efficiency, productivity and compliance tool for fee-for-service payments.

The new AdvicePay Fee Calculator “simply and easily calculates the amount of fees that are due based on various client-fee schedules and scenarios, while automatically creating accompanying invoices for compliance purposes and to implement the actual billing process,” the company said in its announcement.

As the fee-for-service business model gains momentum, more advisors are working with clients by directly charging for their advice outside of or alongside an  asset management fee for portfolio management or a commission for product implementation, from monthly subscription fees to income-and-net-worth retainer fees and more, the company said.

“The challenge of the fee-for-service model is that for the first time ever, advisors are entirely on their own to determine what fee to charge in the first place,” Kitces said in a statement.

“The significance of AdvicePay’s Fee Calculator isn’t just that it is critical from a workflow automation perspective to standardize the fees that advisory firms charge across the business, but it will also provide a visual means for advisors to show and discuss how they set their fees with clients, and to justify and validate why the advisor is charging the fee that they do for the value they provide,” he said.

Addepar Expands its Wealth Management Platform for RIAs

Addepar expanded its wealth management platform by integrating with three major financial planning software providers: eMoney Advisor, Envestnet MoneyGuide Pro and Libretto.

The integrations give users the ability to “leverage the power of Addepar’s data network, providing a single point of access to hundreds of aggregated, normalized and reconciled custodian feeds, along with offline holdings such as alternative investments and real estate, directly within” those software applications, Addepar said in its announcement.

With the new integration, eMoney users can access Addepar reports directly in the eMoney File Vault, allowing advisors to give their clients “more holistic insight without transitioning between two systems,” Addepar said. Users can also seamlessly transition between eMoney and Addepar for efficient access to financial plans and portfolio performance data.

MoneyGuide users, meanwhile, can achieve consistency across Addepar and MoneyGuide workflows, ensuring that data presented in a financial plan matches the values in client reports. Users can also “search, access and link Addepar households in real-time via MoneyGuide,” Addepar said.

Libretto users can deliver household data from Addepar “with the click of a button, enabling powerful financial strategy tools including: priorities-based planning, liability-driven asset allocation, factor-level portfolio construction, asset location, product fulfillment, trade directives, wealth management directives and comprehensive reporting,” Addepar said.

“We aim to provide options for our clients so they can work with the provider that best suits their needs,” said William Armenta, Addepar’s senior director of product, in a statement.

IndexIQ Adds Third Actively Managed ETF

New York Life Investments Company’s IndexIQ launched the IQ Ultra Short Duration ETF Thursday with a net expense ratio of 0.24%.

The new fund is actively managed by NYL Investors, a division of New York Life Investments that the company says manages about $255 billion for its parent company and select strategic partners.

The new  IQ Ultra Short Duration ETF provides financial advisors with “flexibility to manage interest rate risk while seeking to deliver attractive current income,” IndexIQ said in an announcement.

It’s the third in a series of actively managed ETF offerings from IndexIQ following the launch of two active municipal bond funds: IQ MacKay Municipal Insured ETF and IQ MacKay Municipal Intermediate ETF.

“This Fund aims to provide investment solutions that generate consistent, risk-controlled excess returns for our clients [and] represents a strategy which helps mitigate interest rate risk while seeking to minimize price volatility,” Kenneth Sommer, the fund’s senior portfolio manager, said in a statement. “We believe this ETF can play an important role in managing client portfolios in any investment environment,” he added.

Orion Teams with HealthSavings Administrators on HSAs

Orion Advisor Services and HealthSavings Administrators have teamed up for an initiative designed to help RIAs easily integrate health savings accounts (HSAs) into retirement planning services for clients.

The Orion/HealthSavings integration allows RIAs to manage their clients’ HSAs on the same dashboard as other investment accounts that include IRAs, 401(k)s and more.

Orion is “committed to empowering advisors to build and manage customized dashboards that ease their back-office burden so they can focus on holistic financial and retirement planning recommendations,” said Jeff Kliewer, director of integration partnerships and support, in a statement. “The partnership with HealthSavings … gives our users a more complete picture of their clients’ portfolios,”

Franklin Templeton Lowers Fees on Three ETFs

Franklin Templeton reduced management fees for three LibertyShares ETFs that are available to U.S. investors.

The fee on its Franklin LibertyQ U.S. Equity ETF was reduced from a net expense ratio of 0.25% to 0.15%, while the fee on its Franklin Liberty International Aggregate Bon ETF was lowered from a net expense ratio of 0.35% to 0.25% and the fee on its Franklin LibertyQ Emerging Markets ETF was reduced from a net expense ratio of 0.55% to 0.45%, the company announced.

Patrick O’Connor, global head of ETFs for Franklin Templeton, explained in a statement on that the company is “constantly evaluating ways to improve client experiences.”

Check out last week’s portfolio product roundup here: Cambria Launches TOKE Cannabis ETF: Portfolio Products.

 

House Floats 'Flexible Giving Accounts' for Employees

(Photo: Shutterstock)

A bill introduced in the U.S. House of Representatives on July 25 would enable employees to set aside money for charity and receive a tax break.

The Everyday Philanthropist Act (H.R. 4002), sponsored by U.S. Reps. Vern Buchanan,R–Fla., and Thomas Suozzi, D–N.Y., seeks to “empower everyday, working Americans to give to charity.”

It would incentivize employees to set up a flexible giving account through their employer. This would enable them to set aside a pretax portion of their paycheck to donate to a nonprofit of their choice, resulting in an immediate reduction in their taxable income.

Employees’ annual pretax contributions would top out at $2,700; gifts beyond that amount would be included in taxable income. There would be no minimum contribution.

The proposed legislation comes at a time when overall giving in the U.S. has plateaued. Last year, Americans’ donations to charity were virtually flat.

This owed in part to the tax overhaul, which doubled the standard deduction, resulting in a drop in the number of households that itemized deductions, from more than 45 million in 2016 to between 16 million and 20 million in 2018.

In a recent report, researchers suggested several policies that could increase the number of donor households, including an enhanced deduction that provides additional incentives for low- and middle-income taxpayers.

Employers would enjoy several benefits from encouraging their workers to set up flexible giving accounts. Their corporate social responsibility profile would improve as they were seen to be doing social good. Recent research found that eight in 10 employees prefer to work for socially responsible companies.

In addition, the amount of payroll taxes employers pay would be reduced because the FGAs would lower employees’ taxable income.

Another bill, the Charitable Giving Tax Deduction Act, would allow taxpayers to write off charity donations whether or not they itemize. That bill was introduced and sent to the House Ways and Means Committee in May 2018.

— Related on ThinkAdvisor:

ETFs Are More Tax-Efficient Than Mutual Funds. Here's Why.

Tax cut

Not surprising to any advisor, a key advantage of using ETFs versus mutual funds is the former’s tax efficiency. However, a new Morningstar study explores the sources of ETFs’ tax efficiency verses index mutual funds, and found that  ETFs tend to be more tax-efficient for several reasons, including they distribute fewer (or none) and smaller capital gains, have low turnover and allow deferment of capital gains.

In “Measuring ETFs’ Tax Efficiency Versus Mutual Funds,” Morningstar’s Ben Johnson, director of global ETF research, and Alex Bryan, director of passive strategies, North America, found the two sources key to ETFs’ tax efficiency are their strategy and structure.

As of March 2019, 84% of all ETF assets were invested in funds that tracked market-cap-weighted indexes. These indexes have lower turnover than actively managed as well as non-market-cap-weighted funds, the authors state: “Low turnover tends to reduce realized capital gains and the resulting distributions that managers are required to make.” But this also applies to cap-weighted passive mutual funds.

The study found that over the past three years, the median turnover of a group of market-cap-weighted index ETFs was 17% versus 19% for cap-weighted passive mutual funds. The turnover typically is linked to index changes, thus “less buying results in fewer taxable events,” the authors state.

Although these strategies contribute to the tax efficiency, they are not the primary driver, as many mutual funds offer the same exposure.

Other findings of the Morningstar study included:

  • ETFs’ structure is the primary driver of their tax efficiency. The ability to regularly purge low-cost-basis securities in-kind is a key advantage over traditional open-end mutual funds and has allowed even high-turnover strategies to avoid distributing gains.
  • ETFs usually have a more favorable tax profile than open-end index mutual funds that track the same benchmarks. This is because outflows tend to hurt open-end mutual funds’ tax efficiency, while ETFs tend to be resilient.
  • Though ETFs are more tax-efficient than mutual funds, they are not immune to taxation. Their primary benefit from a tax perspective is that investors are allowed to defer the realization of capital gains taxes.

Structure Is The Key

Structure is the primary source of ETFs’ tax efficiency; the study found, “the differences between how ETF shares and mutual fund shares are created and destroyed have important implications for investors in each wrapper.”

With mutual funds, the buying and selling of shares causes a friction, such as brokerage commissions, bid-ask spreads and market impact. Further, mutual fund managers will hold cash to meet regular redemptions, which can hurt performance in a bull market.

Also, capital gains distributions are “a meaningful part of the cost equation” for mutual funds, because as they have to liquidate securities they are hit with taxable capital gains that are passed on to investors.

The “creation-and-redemption mechanism for ETFs is a completely different animal,” the authors state, noting that most investors deal exclusively in the secondary market. “When supply and demand for ETF shares gets out of whack, actors from the primary market mobilize,” the study states.

From a cost perspective, market makers in the secondary market bear the brunt. Further, as the study notes, “long-term investors do not share in these costs.” There also is less “cash-drag” and “in-kind redemptions allow ETF portfolio managers to purge low-cost-basis positions from their portfolios without unlocking capital gains. This makes ETFs, in general, a far more tax-efficient wrapper than mutual funds.”

— Related on ThinkAdvisor:

Is a US Recession Coming? Yield Curve Sounds Loudest Warning Since 2007

(Image: Shutterstock)

The latest eruption in the U.S.-China trade dispute pushed a widely watched Treasury-market recession indicator to the highest alert since 2007.

Rates on 10-year notes sank to 1.74% on Monday, close to completely erasing the surge that followed President Donald Trump’s 2016 election. In early trading, they fetched as much as 32 basis points less than three-month bills, the most extreme yield-curve inversion since just before the 2008 crisis.

The move follows reports that China is responding to the U.S. president’s threat of more tariffs by allowing the yuan to fall and halting imports of U.S. agricultural products. Many major investors expect this slide in 10-year yields to continue given the risk this creates for markets.

Count BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest asset manager, among them. The firm’s global chief investment officer of fixed income, Rick Rieder, foresees 1.5% for the 10-year.

“We could be in a significantly lower-rate environment for a while” given that central banks are poised to ease, he told Bloomberg Television on Monday.

Columbia Threadneedle’s Ed Al-Hussainy also sees the potential for a further leg down in the 10-year benchmark, but says Federal Reserve rate cuts could help the yield curve snap back from its inversion.

“Potentially now the curve starts to steepen because the Fed is being pressured by a combination of data and obviously downside risks in trade to be more forceful,” the senior strategist said in a phone interview.

Heavy buying in fed funds futures contracts in the days since the Fed last week delivered its quarter-point reduction has driven the market to price in another reduction in September, and then some.

Al-Hussainy expects investors to turn to even more aggressive positioning for rate cuts. He says the signal from the curve suggests money markets should be pricing in a higher probability of the Fed’s policy rate going to zero in the coming year.

“There’s a huge disconnect now,” he said. “You don’t need to do a lot of mental gymnastics to get to the Fed having to cut 200 basis points to put off a recession.”

Copyright 2019 Bloomberg. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

IRS' National Taxpayer Advocate Retires

Part of the IRS building (Photo: Allison Bell/ALM)

The National Taxpayer Advocate at the IRS has retired after 18 years on the job and no permanent replacement has been named. 

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal on Friday, Nina Olson, whose job was to represent the interests of American taxpayers before the agency, estimates she has solved problems for 4 million tax filers, made about 40 tax-related recommendations that were enacted by Congress and convinced the IRS to make hundreds of administrative changes. Olson was also the force behind the Taxpayer Bill of Rights, which the IRS adopted in 2014.

“My role is not to be a shill for the IRS,” Olson told the Journal.

Olson managed the Taxpayer Advocate Service consisting of more than 1,600 employees helping taxpayers address their problems with the IRS and oversaw annual reports to Congress abut taxpayers’ most serious problems and about her offices goals and planned activities.

In the Wall Street Journal interview, she lamented some of the shortcomings of the IRS, including its embrace of digitization at the expense of conversations with taxpayers.

Only 33% of taxpayers were able to get through to the IRS by phone to address compliance issues like liens and levies, and the average wait time for those who did get through was 41 minutes, according to Olson. 

In addition, said Olson, the agency’s technology is like a “Rube Goldberg contraption built on 1960s architecture that’s ripe for disaster.” Data on taxpayers such as collections and audits are stored in “bits and pieces” and may not be accessible to IRS employees who need the information, according to Olson.

The Taxpayer First Act, signed into law by the president on July 1, addresses some of these issues. It requires the IRS to develop a comprehensive strategy for customer service that it will submit to Congress by July 2020, creates an independent appeals process, strengthens the ability of the agency to combat identify tax refund fraud and requires the IRS commissioner to appoint a chief information officer responsible for the development, implementation and maintenance of information technology for IRS that is secure and integrated within its system.

It also allows IRS personnel to advise taxpayers of the availability of advice and assistance from qualified low-income taxpayer clinics that receive funding under the government along with location and contact information. 

In the Wall Street Journal interview, Olson said Congress needs to do more oversight of the agency and increase its funding — last year’s spending was more than $600 million below the 2011 level in nominal dollars. 

She also offered some examples of tax systems in other countries that Congress and the Treasury Department, which incorporates the IRS, may want to consider.  

Other countries base the taxation on the earnings of individuals rather than the family, which is the foundation for the U.S. system and which contributes to its complications. And many countries withhold enough money from individual taxpayers throughout the year so that they  don’t ever have to file returns.

Olson said the IRS has studied that possibility of such a “pay-as-you-earn strategy” and found that if taxes were withheld on about seven types of income, 62% of U.S. taxpayers would not have to file a return. 

Although she’s gone from the IRS, Olson, who’s 65, will continue to be an advocate for  taxpayers, as the founder and executive director of the Center for Taxpayer Rights. The center will be organizing, in partnership with the Taxpayer Advocate Service, the fifth international Conference on Taxpayer Rights: The four previous international conferences were organized by Olson when she was the taxpayer advocate at the IRS.

— Related on ThinkAdvisor:

Senate Democrats Fight IRS Ban on SALT Deduction Cap Workarounds

(Image: Shutterstock)

Senate Democrats are attempting to nullify the recently finalized Treasury and IRS rules prohibiting state workarounds to the new federal $10,000 limit on state and local tax (SALT) deductions.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., led the introduction on July 16 of S.J. Res. 50 under the Congressional Review Act to “restore states’ ability to work around the harmful caps, and allow homeowners to again fully retain their SALT deduction.”

Shortly after the SALT deduction cap was enacted under the sweeping 2017 tax law, New York and New Jersey passed laws allowing taxpayers to recharacterize most state and local taxes as a charitable contribution to a specific fund that would then qualify for a federal tax deduction and state tax credit.

The senators note that while the Treasury Department blocked states’ workarounds for individuals, Treasury in September 2018 issued guidance that allowed businesses to continue to benefit from these same workarounds.

Schumer said Thursday in a media conference that Senate Democrats would attempt to overturn the rule through the Congressional Review Act, which gives Congress 60 legislative days for both chambers to repeal the rule. The IRS issued the final rules in mid-June. They will be effective Aug. 12.

“As if the Trump-Republican tax bill wasn’t already bad enough for middle-class families, these new IRS regulations are another kick in the gut to homeowners in New York State and across the country,” said Schumer in announcing the resolution. “The IRS is seeking to deny hardworking homeowners the benefit of the full SALT deduction while continuing their tax giveaway to the wealthiest few and corporations.”

The senators, Schumer said, are “fighting back with a CRA Resolution of Disapproval, which is guaranteed a majority threshold up-or-down vote, [and] would overturn the IRS’ recent attempt to block states from implementing workaround plans, and would allow homeowners to again fully receive this tax benefit.”

The CRA, added Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., “will reverse the flawed guidance issued by the IRS last month, which crippled state-level efforts to protect middle-class families from even higher property tax burdens.”

Menendez has also introduced the SALT Act, which would “fully reinstate the property tax deduction” and restore the 39.6% individual income tax rate bracket.

Why Prospects Don't Make Decisions

A split path (Photo: Thinkstock)

“Let me think about it. I’ll get back to you.”

How many times have you gotten this answer when trying to close a sale? Often the sale never closes. You presented a good idea that was in the prospect’s best interests. You answered their questions.  It seems like a square peg and a square hole. Many agents and advisors wonder why prospects hesitate.

(Related: 7 Ways to Stay on Your Prospect’s Radar)

I wondered too. When doing research, I surveyed and interviewed advisors, asking the question, “Why don’t prospects (and clients) make decisions?”

I got six basic answers.

1. Fear

Buying investments and insurance is a major commitment. They can’t say “I want my money back” at any time. With insurance, surrender charges play a role. (Although there is the free look feature.) They worry they are making the wrong decision. If they are investing, they worry the stock market is too high. Or too low and heading even lower. This scares them off.

Strategy: Prospects often think it’s all or nothing. Starting with a smaller dollar amount is like walking into the pool at the shallow end instead of dicing in.

2. Delaying

People procrastinate. They assume nothing calamitous has happened to their holdings yet, so they can put off making a decision. “Let’s leave things as they are.”

Strategy: Politely explain “No decision is a decision.” By sitting tight, they are determining sticking with their current holdings is the best way forward. Is that what they believe?

3. Too Many Alternatives

This one’s your fault! They wanted income. You gave them lots of options. You want to sound smart, but you left them confused. Faced with choosing one of many options, they choose none. “So many choices. It’s so confusing.”

Strategy: Remember the joke about mother and dinner? “There are two options. Take it or leave it.” You wouldn’t say that, but they asked for your best idea. Let them know you considered others, this is the one you recommend.

4. Don’t See Value Added

Everyone wants to eliminate the middleman. They see ads to buy insurance online or trade stocks virtually for free. “Why should I pay extra to work with you?”

Strategy: You need to differentiate yourself. Insurance is complicated. Talk about “aftermarket service.”

5. Other Relationship

They have another agent or advisor. They aren’t doing a bad job. They think working with another advisor is like adultery. I already have an advisor. I’ll tell them about your idea and see what they think.”

Strategy: OK, they have one mechanic, accountant and barber. How many doctors do they have? Multiple relationships are OK.

6. Lack of Trust

They think agents and advisors are crooks. TV dramas don’t help. Newspaper stories don’t highlight the many people doing good, only the bad apples.

Strategy: Hopefully this prospect was a referral. You can lean on the reputation of the firm, its longevity, safety rating and financial strength.

These are logical reasons prospects don’t make decisions. Once you understand a prospect’s concerns, you can attempt to address them.

— Read 10 Ways to Tactfully Get Your Point Across, on ThinkAdvisor.

Bryce SandersBryce Sanders is president of Perceptive Business Solutions Inc. He provides HNW client acquisition training for the financial services industry. His book, “Captivating the Wealthy Investor,” can be found on Amazon.

Trump Is the Biggest Risk to the US Economy: Zandi

President Donald Trump. (Photo: AP)

The biggest risk to longest running U.S. economic expansion, now in its eleventh year, is none other than the man in the White House, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.

“President Trump is the biggest existential threat to the record U.S. economic expansion,” Zandi tells ThinkAdvisor.

His “upside-down economic policies,”  including a trade war with China, which Trump says will expand on Sept. 1, and “massive deficit-financed tax cuts” at a time when unemployment was already very low have unnerved businesses and “thrown the Federal Reserve off course,” according to Zandi.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell admitted as much in the press conference last Wednesday following the Fed’s first rate cut since the financial crisis.

“Trade is unusual,” said Powell in response to a reporter’s question. “It’s something that we haven’t faced before and that we’re learning by doing … with trade we have to react to the developments, and we don’t know what they’ll be.”

A day later Trump announced plans to slap an additional 10% tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese imports on top of the 25% tariffs already levied on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports. If Trump sticks with his latest plan, essentially all Chinese imports into the U.S. will be subject to a tariff.

The Chinese government, which has already levied tariffs on about $110 billion in imports from the U.S., vowed to respond to the new levies but gave no specifics.

Trump has also renewed threats to impose U.S. tariffs on European auto imports.

Trade tensions “do seem to be having a significant effect on financial market conditions and on the economy,” said Powell at his press conference, noting that trade uncertainty, slowing global growth and muted inflation below the Fed’s 2% target were the reasons behind the Fed rate cut. He called the rate cut a “mid-cycle adjustment” and “not the start of a series of rate cuts.” 

But by Friday the financial markets weren’t buying that outlook, according to Collin Martin, director of fixed income at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. 

“An additional round of tariffs could potentially slow the U.S. growth even more than expected,” leading to additional Fed rate cuts, Collins explains.

By the close of trading on Friday, the S&P 500 was down 3.1% for the week, posting its worst performance since December, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell to 1.864%, its lowest level since the day before the 2016 presidential election.

Fed fund futures were pricing in 97% odds of another 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in September and roughly 50% odds of another same-sized cut in October or December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

“The Fed won’t tolerate an economic slowdown while President Trump is determined to “win” the trade war,” wrote Bank of America Securities Economists Michelle Meyer and Alexander Lin, in their latest weekly report. “The risk is that we end up with an ever-escalating trade war matched by an ever-lower fed funds rate. It is a dangerous adverse feedback loop.”

And it may not even help the economy.

“Reducing rates now, which are already so low, won’t do much good,” says Gary Shilling, founder of the investment advisory firm A. Gary Shilling & Co., who believes the U.S. economy is already in recession. “There’s too much credit in the system now … Lowering rates, with a zero bound Fed policy, will not encourage borrowing and spending, but saving.”

The U.S. savings rate reached 8.1% in June, its highest level since December 2012, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

David Kotok, chairman and chief investment officer of Cumberland Advisors, agrees with Shilling. “When you lower rates you get a capital markets kick one time and we got it, it’s over. Then you have to live with reduced income flows and that’s where we are.” 

“Investors ought to stop focusing on what the Fed does and more on why the Fed is easing policy, which is the softness of the economy,” says Shilling.

And Trump’s latest escalation of the trade war could intensify the slowdown. BofA Securities’ Meyer and Lin warn  that “all tariff options — 25% tariffs on China, autos, and Vietnam — are on the table.” 

U.S. businesses are already feeling the impact of the U.S.-China trade war, refraining from making big investments despite last year’s big corporate tax cut, and slowing hiring, according to Zandi. 

U.S. consumers have also been hurt. A New York Fed report found that the 10% tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese exports — which were increased to 25% in May — cost the typical household $419 per year and that will only grow if the tariffs do.

About 40% of all the clothes sold in the United States are made in China, as are about 70% and 90% of the shoes and toys.

“What I fear now is a move by Trump to put currency exchange into this fight, and the Chinese worry about that too,” says Kotok. If the Chinese permit the yuan to weaken further above seven yuan to one U.S. dollar that would suggest they are ready for a “full-blown trade war and there will be no negotiation,” says Kotok. “At 7.15 the U.S. will call China a currency manipulator, which would invoke different U.S. laws.”

In trading Monday morning the yuan breached the 7-per-dollar level.

In the meantime the Fed  is “working hard to offset the fallout from the president’s capricious trade decisions” and Trump’s constant criticism of the Fed and Twitter attacks on Powell for not lowering rates more aggressively, Zandi wrote in a recent opinion piece on CNN.com. He tells ThinkAdvisor that “monetary policy is working,” but whether it can “save the day depends on the president … I don’t see this ending gracefully.”

Beth Ann Bovino, chief U.S. economist at S&P Global Ratings, has “full faith” that the Fed is not being influenced by the White House, but she notes that the administration’s negative comments toward the central bank and its chairman “feed into the markets, which impacts market sentiment on where the expansion is going. Does the market lose faith in the Fed? It’s a concern.”

— Related on ThinkAdvisor:

5 Takeaways From the Fed’s Rate Cut

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. (Photo: AP) Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. (Photo: AP)

The Federal Reserve cut rates by a quarter-percent on July 31, the first rate cut since December 2008. Financial markets reacted with collective disappointment — stocks fell, bond yields fell and the dollar strengthened. The 3-month/10-year yield curve remained inverted and the 2-year/10-year yield curve flattened significantly.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s somewhat “wobbly” press conference created more confusion for market participants. Equities fell sharply after Powell’s initial comments, then partially recovered after Powell softened his initially hawkish tone. President Donald Trump was quick to criticize the Fed’s decision, a continuation of his apparent strategy to make Powell the scapegoat for slowing economic growth. Five takeaways from the Fed’s decision may provide insight into the future path for monetary policy:

1. Powell may be willing to defy Trump, but he is less likely to defy markets. Powell characterized the Fed’s move as a mid-cycle adjustment to policy rather than the start of a long series of rate cuts. Powell subsequently clarified his initial comments by pointing out that he wasn’t implying that the Fed would be “one and done” after the July cut. According to Powell, further cuts will be dependent on incoming data and evolving risks to the outlook. Slowing economic growth and rising trade tensions makes it likely that more than one “insurance” rate cut will be necessary. Powell might ignore Trump’s rhetoric threatening the Fed’s independence, but he is not likely to ignore signals from financial markets. The next cut may be as soon as September, given the market’s “verdict” on the Fed’s decision, Trump’s announcement of a new 10% tariff on $300 billion of Chinese goods effective Sept. 1, and worsening yield curve dynamics.

2. The Fed plans to end its balance sheet reduction process two months early, which may be more important than July’s rate cut. The effective end to quantitative tightening is a signal that the Fed’s balance sheet is back in play as a potential mechanism to support a faltering economy. By rolling over maturing Treasury holdings and reinvesting proceeds from maturing mortgage securities into Treasury debt, the Fed could ease financial conditions by more than the one-quarter percent cut in the federal funds rate. Based on the projected cash flows from the Fed’s mortgage portfolio, the Fed will be a significant net new buyer of Treasuries to help fund the federal deficit in the coming year. Fed purchases of Treasuries could play an important role in normalizing the yield curve.

3. Fed policy is increasingly influenced by conditions outside the U.S. Powell discussed economic conditions outside the U.S. in his press conference, noting the slowdown in economic growth in the EU and China. U.S. manufacturing activity fell close to three-year lows in July, evidence of the impact of trade tensions and slowing growth outside the U.S. S&P 500 earnings and revenue growth were relatively weak in the second quarter, with multinational companies among the hardest hit by trade tensions and the strong dollar.

4. Central banks can’t solve the world’s economic problems by themselves. The Fed and European Central Bank are setting the tone in a world in which central banks implement expansionary monetary policies. However, the equity selloff after Trump’s latest tariff announcement is a reminder that monetary policy isn’t a universal cure for what ails the global economy.

Trade policy is the primary cause of slow business investment, not the cost of capital. The latest round of tariffs will hit U.S. consumers harder than any prior trade actions, underlining the diminishing effectiveness of tariffs as a policy instrument. Worst-case outcomes on trade would have a direct bottom-line impact for many companies and impose significant costs on companies forced to reconfigure their supply chains.

5. Powell has a delicate balancing act within the Fed. Kansas City Fed President Esther George and Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren voted to keep rates unchanged, with low unemployment and the rising stock market among the factors motivating their dissent. The Fed’s leaders also worry about the risk that if monetary policy is too expansionary, destabilizing imbalances will build within the financial system. The rapid buildup in corporate debt is certainly on the Fed’s radar screen, though the vast majority of corporate borrowing has moved from bank balance sheets to the balance sheets of unleveraged investors. Consequently, the level of corporate debt would likely amplify an economic downturn but is less likely to create a crisis in the financial system.

Closing thoughts. The Fed has been widely criticized for recent policy decisions and a frequently unsteady communication approach. Critics are on shakier ground, however, in challenging the seriousness of the Fed’s commitment to the dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. The yield curve is an important barometer of economic health and the longer that inversion persists, the more aggressive that Fed actions will be to normalize the curve. With inflation continuing to fall short of Fed targets, the U.S. economy softening, global manufacturing in recession, and trade tensions heating up, a rate cut in September is likely.

Daniel S. Kern is chief investment officer of TFC Financial Management, an independent, fee-only financial advisory firm based in Boston.

Prior to joining TFC, Daniel was president and CIO of Advisor Partners. Previously, Daniel was managing director and portfolio manager for Charles Schwab Investment Management, managing asset allocation funds and serving as CFO of the Laudus Funds.

Daniel is a graduate of Brandeis University and earned his MBA in Finance from the University of California, Berkeley. He is a CFA charterholder and a former president of the CFA Society of San Francisco. He also sits on the Board of Trustees for the Green Century Funds.